GLOBAL VOLCANISM: The Latest Report Of Volcanic Eruptions, Activity, Unrest And Awakenings – February 2, 2015!

February 2, 2015 - EARTH - The following constitutes the new activity, unrest and ongoing reports of volcanoes across the globe.



Etna (Sicily, Italy): The new eruptive phase continues. Dense cloud cover has prevented detailed observations, but from occasional clearings and other observations, it seems that the intense strombolian eruptions are going on from a vent between the old and New SE crater, feeding a lava flow, at least 2.5 km long onto the southwestern slope.

Etna's SE crater with strombolian activity and the lava flow (photo: Emanuela / VolcanoDiscovery Italia)

Tremor remains high.

More details start to emerge about the new eruptive phase. Strombolian activity from the SE crater accompanies important lava effusion, feeding an impressive lava flow.

The new lava flow on Etna's SW side seen from Catania (photo: Emanuele Zuccarello / Etna Walk)

The new lava flow reaching approx. 2000 m elevation (photo: Emanuela / VolcanoDiscovery Italia)

Steam ring from Etna's SE crater (photo: Emanuela / VolcanoDiscovery Italia)

Etna seen from Paternó on the SSW flank

Current tremor signal (ESLNZ station, INGV Catania)

The lava flow has been taking a path to the SW, passing the 2002 cones on their western side and descending already to approx. 2000 m or less altitude, a few km west of the provincial road to La Sapienza.

Shiveluch (Kamchatka): A powerful explosion occurred this morning, at 02:08 local time, at the volcano. It seems a large-volume pyroclastic flow of several km length and an ash plume rising to approx. 33,000 ft (10 km) altitude were generated.

Eruption at Shiveluch volcano this morning (KVERT webcam)

The eruption occurred from the same area of the active lava dome as the ones during the past weeks, i.e. from the north side of the dome's cone near the 1964 caldera wall.

Kilauea (Hawai'i): Some images of frozen and active pahoehoe lava taken during an excursion to active lava flows from Kiilauea during one of the recent Round-The-World tours.

The June 27th lava flow remains active, but its advance is slow. The leading edge is currently stalled roughly 500 meters from Highway 130 at Pahoa.

Map of the June 27th lava flow as of 26 Jan (USGS / HVO)

Breakouts remain active a short distance upslope of the leading tip of the flow, and continue to slowly widen the flow.

Bardarbunga (Central Iceland): A small earthquake swarm at 1 km below the eastern rim of the Bardarbunga caldera occurred yesterday evening at 21:22 local time, accompanied by a rise in tremor.

Earthquakes at Bardarbunga yesterday (IMO)

John Friman who closely follows the events in Iceland suspects on his blog that a minor subglacial eruption could have taken place.

If so, a meltwater flood should be expected in the course of the day.

Comparison of the Baugur vent showing the decrease in activity
(photo: Morten S.Riishuus & Ármann Höskuldsson / IES FVNH)

The visible intensity of the eruption continues to decrease gradually last week. The Icelandic Met office conducted air-borne measurements of the lava field last week, showing that it has significantly thickened (rather than expanded laterally) during the past weeks, and is now estimated to contain approx. 1.4 cubic kilometers of lava. Effusion rates, although decreasing, are still close to an impressive 100 m³ per second.

Kliuchevskoi (Kamchatka): The volcano's activity today consisted of continuing mild to moderate strombolian activity. Probably the lava flow on its upper flank is still active, but seems to have decreased. Frequent incandescent avalanches occurred, accompanied by mild ash emissions.

Lava flow or incandescent avalanche on Klyuchevskoy this morning (evening in Kamchatka)

VAAC Tokyo issued a warning about a possible ash plume rising to 34,000 ft (10 km) altitude at 02:57 UTC, although it stated that no ash was visible on satellite imagery, and no such plume is visible on webcam imagery, only a rather diluted ash plume at much lower altitude.

Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai (Tonga, Tonga Islands):  An exceptional satellite image taken by the European Pléiades satellite from 19 January 19 shows the new island that formed during the eruption near Hunga Ha’apai island (left in images) earlier this month and joined it by forming a new peninsula, composed of a broad, flat ash cone with a water-filled crater.

Image: Pleiades © CNES 2015

The image also shows that activity seems to have already stopped by the 19th when the image was taken. Most likely, the new land addition will be eroded within months, because it seems mainly to be composed of loose materials, as opposed to more resistant solid lava flows.

What makes this remarkable news, however, is that we don’t get the chance to see this kind of wild geology in action on a day to day basis.

In fact, most islands today are made from underwater volcano eruptions. The story of a volcanic island starts inside the Earth. Earth has a solid inner core. It’s made of solid metal. It is thought to be as hot as the surface of the sun! A liquid outer core surrounds the inner core. The outer core is made of metals, too. It is liquid because it is under less pressure than the inner core. Around the outer core is the Earth’s mantle. It’s made of hot rock called magma. It’s mostly solid, but it can flow like hot plastic. We live on the crust. It is the thin, outside layer of the Earth. The crust is in pieces like a jigsaw puzzle. They are called tectonic plates. The plates fit together. Forces caused by Earth’s heat sometimes push them tighter against each other. Sometimes forces pull them apart. Sometimes there are weak spots in the crust. When plates pull apart or there is a weak spot, the mantle’s hot, flowing magma oozes out.

Fogo (Cape Verde): The eruption still continues although most of the time visible activity is very low and restricted to degassing. Minor lava effusion and sporadic flares of strombolian activity of mild to moderate size occur from time to time.

Ash emission at Fogo on 25 Jan (OVCV)

Scientists from the Cabo Verde volcano observatory (OVCV) who climbed the volcano on 25 January observed small ash emissions, and published a detailed report about the most recent significant activity during 20-23 January, when explosions produced a short-lived ash plume that rose up to 1200 meters on the morning of 20 Jan, as well as a small lava flow on the following day.

Karymsky (Kamchatka): Moderate explosive activity continues. Ash plumes from strombolian to vulcanian eruptions were reported by KVERT, reaching approx. 14,000 ft (4.2 km) altitude and drifting north and later east from the volcano. Aviation color code remains "orange".

Shishaldin (United States, Aleutian Islands): A faint thermal signal remains visible on satellite imagery. According to the Alaska Volcano Observatory, weak eruptive activity likely continues in the summit crater.

San Miguel (El Salvador): A small explosion occurred last Monday at 06:43 morning. Probably phreatic in nature, it was the first eruptive activity since minor ash emissions past July.

Ash plume from San Miguel's eruption on Monday (MARN)

According to MARN, falling blocks from the eruption could be heard from people in the vicinity of the volcano. No further eruptions have followed so far, and no significant temperature signal can be detected at the summit, only constant degassing reaching 150-250 m height.

Seismic activity remains relatively low, but sudden explosions of small to moderate size remain a possibility.

Sangay (Ecuador): Eruptive activity of some sort is likely in progress at the volcano. Along with pilot reports of spotted plumes relayed through the Washington VAAC, thermal signals detectable on satellite data have been more and more frequent since early January, Culture Volcan points out in his blog.

Hot spots detected at Sangay during the past weeks (MIROVA via Culture Volcan)

It is unknown what kind of activity is occurring, but the most likely scenario is mild to moderate strombolian activity, which is typical for Sangay,- an extremely remote, but at the same time very active, that often has this type of activity. In many ways it is similar to its Kamchatka counterpart Klyuchevskoy currently in eruption as well.

Volcano Activity Summary as of February 1, 2015:

Currently erupting:

Ambrym (Vanuatu): active lava lakes in several craters (updated 14 Aug 2013)
Aso (Kyushu): intense strombolian activity from main vent in Nakadake crater (updated 20 Jan 2015)
Bardarbunga (Central Iceland): lava lake, sporadic fountains, lava flow (updated 18 Sep 2014)
Barren Island (Indian Ocean): intermittent activity, likely strombolian-type and/or lava flows (updated 4 Feb 2014)
Batu Tara (Sunda Islands, Indonesia): strombolian explosions, ash plumes up to 500 m, extrusion of a small lava dome with rockfalls (updated 4 Nov 2014)
Colima (Western Mexico): slowly growing lava dome, occasional explosions (updated 24 Jan 2015)
Copahue (Chile/Argentina): ash venting (updated 4 Dec 2014)
Daikoku (Volcano Islands): underwater eruption discovered on 14 Dec 2014 (updated 22 Dec 2014)
Dukono (Halmahera): thermal anomaly, probably small explosive activity in summit crater (updated 26 Jan 2015)
Erebus (Antarctica): active lava lake in summit crater (updated 8 Dec 2014)
Erta Ale (Ethiopia): active lava lake in northern pit crater, active hornito with intermittend flow in southern crater (updated 11 Jan 2013)
Fuego (Guatemala): strombolian explosions from summit crater, intermittent lava flows (updated 19 Jan 2015)
Gamalama (Halmahera): new eruption on 18 Dec 2014 (updated 22 Dec 2014)
Ibu (Halmahera, Indonesia): stromolian and phreatomagmatic explosions (updated 14 Nov 2014)
Karymsky (Kamchatka): occasional small explosions, thermal anomaly (updated 28 Jan 2015)
Kilauea (Hawai'i): new lava flow from vents on NE flank of Pu'u 'O'o (updated 13 Aug 2013)
Kliuchevskoi (Kamchatka): strombolian activity and lava flow on summit vent (updated 30 Jan 2015)
Manam (Papua New Guinea): degassing, occasional ash venting (updated 28 Aug 2013)
Marapi (Western Sumatra, Indonesia): sporadic explosions (updated 27 Mar 2014)
Nasu (Honshu)
Nishino-shima (Volcano Islands, Japan): growing island (updated 19 Jan 2015)
Nyamuragira (DRCongo): active lava lake (updated 29 Nov 2014)
Nyiragongo (DRCongo): active lava lake in summit crater (updated 26 Feb 2014)
Ol Doinyo Lengai (Tanzania): effusion of natrocarbonatite lava inside the crater (updated 8 Jul 2013)
Poas (Costa Rica): phreatic explosions (updated 14 Oct 2014)
Popocatépetl (Central Mexico): degassing, sporadic explosions, slowly growing lava dome (updated 3 Jan 2015)
Rabaul (Tavurvur) (New Britain, Papua New Guinea): lava fountains, ash emissions from Tavurvur cone (updated 12 Sep 2014)
Raung (East Java): mild strombolian activity in summit crater (updated 2 Dec 2014)
Reventador (Ecuador): lava flow on southwestern flank, intermittent explosions (updated 7 Dec 2014)
Sakurajima (Kyushu, Japan): ash venting, intermittent explosions (updated 24 Jan 2015)
Sangay (Ecuador): likely strombolian eruptions at summit crater (updated 28 Jan 2015)
Sangeang Api (Indonesia): growing lava dome & lava flow (updated 7 Jul 2014)
Santiaguito (Guatemala): small explosions from the Caliente dome and active lava flow (updated 19 Jan 2015)
Semeru (East Java, Indonesia): growing lava dome, lava flow, strombolian activity (updated 26 Nov 2014)
Shiveluch (Kamchatka): growing lava dome, incandescent avalanches, occasional explosions (updated 1 Feb 2015)
Sinabung (Sumatra, Indonesia): continuing pyroclastic flows (updated 19 Jan 2015)
Soputan (North Sulawesi, Indonesia): active viscous lava flow, explosions, rockfalls, pyroclastic flows (updated 21 Jan 2015)
Suwanose-jima (Ryukyu Islands): strombolian activity in summit crater (updated 26 Jan 2015)
Tungurahua (Ecuador): moderate to strong strombolian explosions from central crater (updated 25 Sep 2014)
Yasur (Tanna Island, Vanuatu): ash emissions, weak strombolian explosions (updated 14 Aug 2013)
Zhupanovsky (Kamchatka, Russia): intermittent ash emissions (updated 26 Jan 2015)

Eruption warning / minor activity:

Augustine (Cook Inlet (SW Alaska))
Bagana (Bougainville Island, Papua New Guinea): ash emissions, lava dome growth (updated 21 Jan 2015)
Bezymianny (Central Kamchatka Depression): steaming, weak seismic activity (updated 3 Jul 2014)
Chirinkotan (Northern Kuriles): unspecified activity - possibly lava flows (updated 12 Jan 2015)
Chirpoi (Kurile Islands, Russia): hot spot visible on satellite imagery (updated 12 Jan 2015)
Etna (Sicily, Italy): sporadic weak ash emissions from New SE crater (updated 19 Apr 2014)
Fogo (Cape Verde): sporadic small explosions (updated 28 Jan 2015)
Heard (Australia, Southern Indian Ocean): possibly lava lake in summit crater (updated 5 Dec 2014)
Karangetang (Siau Island, Sangihe Islands, Indonesia): incandescent lava dome (updated 24 Oct 2014)
Kavachi (Solomon Islands): no eruption since 2007 (updated 16 Jun 2014)
Kerinci (Sumatra): seismic unrest (updated 5 Jun 2013)
Kirishima (Kyushu): degassing, alert lowered (updated 25 Oct 2014)
Krakatau (Sunda Strait, Indonesia): degassing (updated 31 Mar 2014)
Kuchinoerabu-jima (Ryukyu Islands): explosion on 3 Aug 2014 (updated 5 Dec 2014)
Lokon-Empung (North Sulawesi, Indonesia): small explosions, lava flow? (updated 13 Sep 2014)
Lopevi (Vanuatu ): eruption warning (updated 16 Dec 2014)
Mayon (Luzon Island): steaming (updated 18 Dec 2014)
Monowai (Kermandec Islands, New Zealand): frequent submarine eruptions, last confirmed during Oct 2014 (updated 14 Nov 2014)
Nevado del Ruiz (Colombia): ash emissions (updated 16 Dec 2014)
Ontake-san (Honshu): steaming, low seismic activity (updated 18 Dec 2014)
Pacaya (Guatemala): ash emissions, thermal anomaly in Mackenney crater (updated 15 Jan 2015)
Papandayan (West Java): strong hydrothermal activity, increased seismicity (updated 6 May 2013)
Pavlof (Alaska Peninsula, USA): steaming, elevated seismic activity (updated 22 Dec 2014)
Piton de la Fournaise (La Réunion): short-lived eruption during 21-22 June (updated 4 Dec 2014)
Rasshua (Central Kuriles)
Rincón de la Vieja (Costa Rica): phreatic explosions from crater lake (updated 21 Sep 2014)
Sacabaya (Northern Chile, Bolivia and Argentina)
San Cristobal (Nicaragua): possible ash emission on 11 April (updated 12 Apr 2014)
San Miguel (El Salvador): elevated seismic activity, pulsating gas emissions (updated 28 Jan 2015)
Shishaldin (United States, Aleutian Islands): mild explosive activity, intermittent more intense phases (updated 28 Jan 2015)
Slamet (Central Java): intense strombolian explosions (updated 12 Jan 2015)
Stromboli (Eolian Islands, Italy): weak strombolian activity at summit vents (updated 13 Jan 2015)
Turrialba (Costa Rica): occasional ash emissions (updated 9 Dec 2014)
Ulawun (New Britain, Papua New Guinea): degassing, ash venting (updated 5 Aug 2013)
Villarrica (Central Chile): deep-seated strombolian explosions in summit crater (updated 18 Dec 2014)

- Volcano Discovery | ZME Science.

ICE NOW: Global Cooling Continues Worldwide - Britain Bracing For Arctic Misery With More Heavy Snowfall And Winter Storm Warning In Effect For Toronto As Temperatures Plunge!

February 2, 2015 - EARTH - Britain and Canada faces another round of Arctic misery as winter blast is set to unleash more heavy snowfall.

The winter blast continues as Britain braced for Arctic misery with MORE heavy snowfall

Britain is bracing itself for more snowfall and plummeting temperatures. PA MET OFFICE

Temperatures are set to remain freezing for the next four weeks with no end to the cold spell until spring.

Experts say the “coldest spell of winter” is about to bite with four inches of snow expected. Those areas so far spared snow are on alert from today with severe weather warnings in place through the week as bitter winds sweep in from Scandinavia and the Arctic.

The North faces four more inches of snow with wintry showers forecast across the Midlands and as far south as London, Kent and the South-east.

Met Office forecasters last night warned that plunging temperatures will struggle to get above freezing when wind-chill is factored in.

Experts say this winter is threatening to match the big freeze of 2010.

Forecaster Simon Partridge said: “It’s going to stay very cold this week with winds coming from a north-easterly direction.

They will move over the North Sea and bring more snowfall.

“Further wintry showers are expected in eastern and western parts while rain will freeze overnight making some very icy stretches of road.”

The freezing weather is being bolstered by an erratic jet stream that has plunged southwards, leaving the UK at the mercy of cold from the Arctic.

Temperatures in the North this week will plummet to -10C overnight while widespread lows of -6C (21F) will be driven by bitter polar winds.

James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said: “As we progress into the rest of the month there are likely to be some significant changes to an even colder scenario.

This will bring widespread snow.”

 

Further wintry showers are expected in eastern and western parts while rain will freeze overnight making some very icy stretches of road.

- Simon Partridge, forecaster

Winter finally tightened its grip at the end of last month after weeks of relatively mild weather gave way to freezing gales and snow.

Schools in the North were forced to close while flights were grounded and major roads ground to a halt.

Further snowfall yesterday and bitter winds saw the North battle with blizzards while several inches piled up in exposed regions.

The weather is likely to cause travel chaos across the country.

Thousands of rail travellers face misery today after the winter weather caused a landslide in Warwickshire, leading to the closure of a key route.

About 350,000 tons of earth must be moved from the mainline between Leamington Spa and Banbury, a huge task that will take up to a week to complete.

Chiltern Railways said that customers can use their tickets with other operators.

The cold weather means Britain could be facing a killer winter freeze on a par with the lethal chiller of 2012 that led to 31,000 extra deaths.

Campaign groups warn it is the elderly struggling with sky-high heating bills who are most at risk during extreme cold.

The Government has extended a level-3 cold weather health alert until Thursday with the continued risk of dangerous weather.

Malcolm Booth, chief executive of the National Federation of Occupational Pensioners, said: “Older people should also be cautious about going out in the cold as there is an increased risk of falls on the ice.”

Public Health England has urged people to take care at home and while out and about and Dr Angie Bone of its extreme events team said:

“It’s important to remember that cold kills even in places where the temperatures aren’t at their lowest.” - Express.

Winter storm warning in effect for Toronto as temperatures plunge

Residents of the city are struggling to dig out after a heavy snowstor buried Toronto.

A weather system that rolled into the GTA Sunday night could leave up to 15 cm of accumulation on the ground just in time for the Monday morning commute.

Environment Canada is calling for snow, which could be heavy at times, and blowing snow, before the morning rush hour.

The weather agency predicts anywhere from 10 to 15 cm of snow could fall before Monday’s drive.

Sgt. Kerry Schmidt of the OPP said Sunday afternoon that police in Burlington and Hamilton were “swamped” with reports of collisions, and he warned drivers to be careful.

Air travellers were being cautioned too. Pearson International Airport reported dozens of flight cancellations on Sunday and tweeted that passengers should check the status of their flights.

Billy Bishop Toronto City Airport, meanwhile, cancelled more than two dozen flights Sunday.

Porter Airlines, Billy Bishop Airport’s main tenant, said on its website that delays and cancellations are possible for those travelling to Windsor, Chicago, Boston, Toronto, Halifax, Moncton and Newark.

Meanwhile, temperatures are dropping and Toronto's chief medical officer of health has issued an extreme cold weather alert.

With the wind chill, it could feel as cold as - 25 C overnight, according to Environment Canada.

The weather agency says drivers can expect slippery road conditions and blowing snow that could make driving difficult on Monday morning.

Winds from the north east of 30 km/h could gust up to 50 km/h.

Dave Phillips, senior climatologist with Environment Canada, told CTV Barrie that most of the snow will avoid communities to the north.

"This storm, coming from Colorado, is heading more to the lower lakes, so areas north of Toronto are not going to be hit as hard," he said. "A little bit of a tough commute for tomorrow morning, but apart from that, we'll weather this one." - CTV News.

GLOBAL VOLCANISM: Deadly Beauty - Breathtaking Images Of Lava Flow On The Italian Island Of Sicily, As Mount Etna's Eruption Continues; Lava Descends To About 2,000 Meters!

People watch Italy's Mount Etna, Europe's tallest and most active volcano, spewing lava as it erupts on the southern island of Sicily November 17, 2013.
(Reuters/Antonio Parrinello)

February 2, 2015 - SICILY, ITALY - The continuing eruption of Europe’s most active volcano, Etna, on the Italian island of Sicily has provided for some breathtaking night images of smoke clouds and flowing lava.

On Sunday, the lava flow at Etna has descended to approximately 2,000 meters, stopping just a few kilometers west of the provincial road to La Sapienza, Volcano Discovery website said.

The volcano began erupting on December 28, 2014, which was the most activity recorded from Etna since December 2013.

Etna is one of the world’s most active volcanoes, and is almost constantly in a state of activity. The first recorded observation of its eruption was made by Greek historian Diodorus Siculus in 425 BC.

For centuries Etna has been threatening the heavily populated towns and villages surrounding the foothills of mountain, despite the volcano’s character. Due to this character and own persistency, the coastal town of Catania had to be rebuilt on several occasions after being hit by lava between 122 BC and 1185 AD.

Some 1,500 people were killed in 1669 when the town of Nicoli was decimated by an earthquake originating beneath Mount Etna. In 1928, the village of Mascali was destroyed in just two days when a fissure opened up near the foot of the mountain. Only the involvement of the US Marines allowed the town of Zafferana to be saved from the lava flow in 1992.


WATCH: Etna's eruption and lava flow.

Despite the threat, Mount Etna is a cornerstone of the Sicilian economy as it provides fertile land for agriculture, due to fallen ash, and attracts thousands of tourists to the region.

The 3,329-meter-tall volcano, which has four summit craters, has been added to the list of UNESCO World Heritage Sites in June 2013. - RT.

PLAGUES, PESTILENCES & TERRORISM: The Next Suicide Mission - UK Ministry Of Defence Experts Warn Of "Weaponized Ebola"!

Reuters/Baz Ratner

February 2, 2015 - UNITED KINGDOM - British military experts fear terrorists could ‘weaponize’ Ebola, a heavily redacted Ministry of Defence (MoD) report has revealed.

The report, released on Friday, identified a number of scenarios in the event of a biological terrorist attack in the UK, and was drawn up by the MoD’s defense science and technology laboratory (DSTL).

While two scenarios have been almost completely redacted, with the second being described as “logistically and technically challenging for a non-state group to undertake,” the third detailed a fear that the spread of Ebola in West Africa could be transmitted into the UK.

Though few details are known about a possible plan, the report warns of “the feasibility of a non-state actor (NSA) exploiting the Ebola outbreak in West Africa for bioterrorism.”

The first scenario, which was completely blacked out, also carried a note reading: “Clearly there are practical issues involved with such a scenario that of themselves are often not insurmountable but taken together add to the complexity of successfully undertaking this attack.”

Last year, military officials expressed concerns that terrorist groups such as Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS/ISIL) could find a way to turn Ebola into a bio-weapon against the West.

Speaking to Forbes magazine, Captain Al Shimkus, a Professor of National Security Affairs at the US Naval War College, said such plans were feasible, and that militias could turn humans into ‘weapons’ if they carry the disease.

“The individual exposed to the Ebola virus would be the carrier. In the context of terrorist activity, it doesn’t take much sophistication to go to that next step to use a human being as a carrier,” he said.

Academics and analysts also expressed concerns that militants could infiltrate Western countries by carrying and spreading the disease through human agents, which may be undetected in routine security checks. 

“In some ways it’s a plausible theory – IS fighters believe in suicide and this is a potential job for a suicide mission,” Professor Anthony Glees, Director at Buckingham University’s Centre for Security and Intelligence Studies told Mail Online.

“They are sufficiently murderous and well-informed to consider it, and they know that we’ve been remiss in the UK.”

Last week, a second UK military healthcare worker was flown to the Ebola specialist unit at London’s Royal Free Hospital, following warnings they had likely been exposed to the Ebola virus while managing medical equipment in Sierra Leone. - RT.

MONUMENTAL EARTH CHANGES: Extreme Water Crisis - San Francisco Experiences Driest January In 165 YEARS, With NO Measurable Rainfall!

A security guard walks the perimeter of the Almaden Reservoir on Jan. 28, 2014, in San Jose, California. One year later,
the California drought has only gotten worse.  Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

February 2, 2015 - CALIFORNIA, UNITED STATES - California’s epic drought is about to set another seemingly unbreakable record.

With just two days remaining in the month, no rain in the forecast, and a monster ridge of high pressure camped out overhead, San Francisco is now all but assured of its driest January in city history—exactly zero (that’s right, 0.00) inches have fallen so far.

If the dearth of raindrops holds out, it will beat the record set last year, when just 0.01 inches fell at the airport. The long-term average rainfall in San Francisco in January is about 4.5 inches, with records dating continuously back to 1850. In the past, the city has received up to 14.5 inches in January (in 1916).

That’s a lot of zeroes. Image: Screen capture of National Weather Service climate data.

And it’s not just San Francisco. In most of northern and central California—the hardest hit regions of the state’s drought—rainfall in 2015 has been less than 2 percent of normal.

Any hopes the state had of finally turning the corner on its oppressive, possibly climate change–fueled megadrought have withered like the Sacramento River. Progress made in refilling the state’s largest reservoirs thanks to a series of major December storms has stalled, and key rainfall indices are back to being below normal. Snowpack in the Sierras, which supplies more than 60 percent of the state’s water resources, is down to a dismal 25 percent of normal. New data released by the National Drought Mitigation Center on Thursday showed 40 percent of the state is now classified as “exceptional drought,” the most severe category.

New year, same drought http://t.co/6gSXdBxOs7 pic.twitter.com/FH5pCXeDjN

— L.A. Times Graphics (@LATimesGraphics) January 12, 2015

California was off-the-charts hot in 2014, shattering the previous statewide heat record by nearly 2 degrees Fahrenheit. That may not sound like a lot, but until last year, the entire historical range for all years dating back to 1895 was only a bit over 4 degrees Fahrenheit. The distance separating the now second- and third-warmest years (1934 and 1996) is just one-tenth of 1 degree. The temperature so far in 2015 has been much above normal, as well.

This September file photo shows exposed tree stumps on the lake bed of Huntington Lake which was at only 30% capacity. Storms in December did partially
refill several reservoirs in the state, but they are still only holding 65% of average water supplies. Photo: Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

As the drought plods along, the impact on sensitive industries like agriculture has continued to worsen. This winter, the California salmon industry was decimated by warmer-than-normal water in the state’s lakes and streams, reports Capital Public Radio in Sacramento. Meanwhile, the Sacramento Bee reports that the state is considering temporary dams on the vulnerable Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta in a desperate attempt to keep saltwater from encroaching inland into sensitive wetlands and the state’s drinking water supply. The delta sends water to about 25 million urban Californians and helps irrigate a vast section of the state’s agricultural production.

For now, California is the country’s leading dairy-producing state. That might change if the drought continues at this pace. Iowa Public Radio reports that there’s been an increasing exodus of dairy farmers from California to the Midwest, where supplies of grass and grain are more stable. With the specter of climate change, these kinds of stories hint at what could be a broader decline in the country’s leading agricultural state in coming years.

As for the current drought, there’s increasing evidence that last month’s boost in rains could have been a fluke. In the weeks ahead, the whole of America is about to get a blast from the ghost of weather past. It’s as if Marty McFly transported the entire country back to this time last year. Same weather pattern, same result: bitter cold in the East, a baking-hot and dry West.

The primary culprit, as it was last year, is a stubborn ridge of high pressure camped out over the Pacific coast, shunting moisture northward away from California, and opening the atmospheric gates for wave after wave of frigid Arctic air to spill southward toward the East Coast.

Tuesday’s forecast temperature anomalies across North America. Look familiar? Image: GFS Ensemble/Levi Cowan

That persistent ridge of high pressure in the West means the California drought will continue to escalate:

Models keeping CA exceptionally dry well into Feb. #SF could see record-longest mid-winter dry spell.#cawx #cadrought pic.twitter.com/lZOZJpZTdU

— Daniel Swain (@Weather_West) January 28, 2015

Meanwhile, the latest runs of the GFS model—the one that nailed Tuesday’s nonblizzard in New York City—shows no fewer than six snowstorm chances for the East Coast before Valentine’s Day. Snow-starved Washington, D.C. could see a major storm on Monday, the day after the Super Bowl. The most recent update from the Washington Post’s Capital Weather Gang gives hope to snow-lovers: “Most of our snowstorms this winter so far have just been field goals, this one could be a touchdown.” Anywhere from 2 to 10 inches could fall on the nation’s capital as a suddenly-very-active winter weather pattern continues in full swing for the East. - Slate.

DELUGE: Heavy Rainfall, Widespread Flooding And Landslides Hit Indonesia - At Least 2 People Dead And Over 5,000 Homes Damaged!

A girl rides her bike through a flooded street in Tanjung Duren, West Jakarta, on Saturday, following heavy rain in the capital and surrounding areas. 
© JP/Jerry Adiguna

February 2, 2015 - INDONESIA - Heavy rainfall across Indonesia has caused flooding and landslides, resulting in the death of at least 2 people and damage to over 5,000 homes.

Bali

Floods and landslides killed two people in Karangasem district, Karangasem, Bali on 31 January 2015. Two others were injured in the landslide which occurred after heavy rainfall in the region.

West Nusa Tenggara

Floods have damaged at least 4,000 houses in the Dompu and Woja districts, West Nusa Tenggara.

The Jakarta Post said:

The flood inundated between 4,000 and 5,000 houses in the area. Some houses located on riverbanks encountered floodwaters 4 meters deep, nearly submerging them.

The overflowing Laju, Silo, Soa, Raba Baka and Toi rivers were blamed for the flood in Dompu.

East Java

Major flooding has hit a number of villages in Bojonegoro, East Java, over the last several days due to overflow from nearby rivers, including Mekuris and Pancal. Some areas are said to be under 80 cm of water. Around 50 houses and a health centre have been damaged by the floods in Gondang.

Around 7,000 people in Nganjuk regency have been cut off after floods caused a bridge in Sawahan district to collapse.

South and Central Kalimantan

Heavy rain forced the Benawa and Barabai rivers to overflow in South Kalimantan, flooding parts of Batu Benawa and Barabai districts.

WMO report that 109 mm of rain fell in 24 hours to 02 February 2015 in Pangkalan Bun, Central Kalimantan.

Jakarta

Several areas of Jakarta are again underwater after 2 days of heavy rain across the capital. Kampung Pulo in East Jakarta and Duri Kosambi in West Jakarta and Petogogan, Kebayoran Baru in South Jakarta are said to be worst hit.

WMO report that 104 mm of rain fell over a 24 hour period to 02 February 2015 in Tanjung Priok, Jakarta.

Further Heavy Rainfall

Indonesia's Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) warned there could be worse to come as the peak of the rainy season is set to hit.

Indonesia's National Disaster Mitigation Agency (BNPB) called on people to exercise caution during the current spate of severe weather.

Provinces with high potential for heavy downpours over the next three days include West Nusa Tenggara, Lampung, West Java, Central Java, East Java, Central Kalimantan, South Sulawesi, Southeast Sulawesi, Bali, East Nusa Tenggara, Maluku and Papua. - Floodlist.

PLANETARY TREMORS: "Tremors Lasted A Long Time" - Strong 6.3 Magnitude Earthquake Hits Northwestern Argentina! [MAPS + TECTONIC SUMMARY]

USGS earthquake location.

February 2, 2015 - ARGENTINA - An earthquake with a magnitude of 6.3 rattled northwestern Argentina on Monday, the U.S. Geological Survey said, but there were no immediate reports of casualties.

The quake struck 93 km (58 miles) northwest of San Luis, which lies in the shadow of the Andes mountains, at a depth of 184 kilometers, USGS data showed.

USGS shakemap intensity.

Local journalist Alejandro Costanzo said that while the tremors did not feel strong in the city, they lasted a long time. He said he had seen no immediate signs of damage in San Luis.

"Buildings here are designed for this kind of event," Costanzo told television station TN from San Luis, adding that the surrounding region was lightly populated. - Reuters.

Tectonic Summary - Seismotectonics of South America (Nazca Plate Region)

The South American arc extends over 7,000 km, from the Chilean margin triple junction offshore of southern Chile to its intersection with the Panama fracture zone, offshore of the southern coast of Panama in Central America. It marks the plate boundary between the subducting Nazca plate and the South America plate, where the oceanic crust and lithosphere of the Nazca plate begin their descent into the mantle beneath South America. The convergence associated with this subduction process is responsible for the uplift of the Andes Mountains, and for the active volcanic chain present along much of this deformation front. Relative to a fixed South America plate, the Nazca plate moves slightly north of eastwards at a rate varying from approximately 80 mm/yr in the south to approximately 65 mm/yr in the north. Although the rate of subduction varies little along the entire arc, there are complex changes in the geologic processes along the subduction zone that dramatically influence volcanic activity, crustal deformation, earthquake generation and occurrence all along the western edge of South America.

Most of the large earthquakes in South America are constrained to shallow depths of 0 to 70 km resulting from both crustal and interplate deformation. Crustal earthquakes result from deformation and mountain building in the overriding South America plate and generate earthquakes as deep as approximately 50 km. Interplate earthquakes occur due to slip along the dipping interface between the Nazca and the South American plates. Interplate earthquakes in this region are frequent and often large, and occur between the depths of approximately 10 and 60 km. Since 1900, numerous magnitude 8 or larger earthquakes have occurred on this subduction zone interface that were followed by devastating tsunamis, including the 1960 M9.5 earthquake in southern Chile, the largest instrumentally recorded earthquake in the world. Other notable shallow tsunami-generating earthquakes include the 1906 M8.5 earthquake near Esmeraldas, Ecuador, the 1922 M8.5 earthquake near Coquimbo, Chile, the 2001 M8.4 Arequipa, Peru earthquake, the 2007 M8.0 earthquake near Pisco, Peru, and the 2010 M8.8 Maule, Chile earthquake located just north of the 1960 event.

USGS plate tectonics.

Large intermediate-depth earthquakes (those occurring between depths of approximately 70 and 300 km) are relatively limited in size and spatial extent in South America, and occur within the Nazca plate as a result of internal deformation within the subducting plate. These earthquakes generally cluster beneath northern Chile and southwestern Bolivia, and to a lesser extent beneath northern Peru and southern Ecuador, with depths between 110 and 130 km. Most of these earthquakes occur adjacent to the bend in the coastline between Peru and Chile. The most recent large intermediate-depth earthquake in this region was the 2005 M7.8 Tarapaca, Chile earthquake.

Earthquakes can also be generated to depths greater than 600 km as a result of continued internal deformation of the subducting Nazca plate. Deep-focus earthquakes in South America are not observed from a depth range of approximately 300 to 500 km. Instead, deep earthquakes in this region occur at depths of 500 to 650 km and are concentrated into two zones: one that runs beneath the Peru-Brazil border and another that extends from central Bolivia to central Argentina. These earthquakes generally do not exhibit large magnitudes. An exception to this was the 1994 Bolivian earthquake in northwestern Bolivia. This M8.2 earthquake occurred at a depth of 631 km, which was until recently the largest deep-focus earthquake instrumentally recorded (superseded in May 2013 by a M8.3 earthquake 610 km beneath the Sea of Okhotsk, Russia), and was felt widely throughout South and North America.

Subduction of the Nazca plate is geometrically complex and impacts the geology and seismicity of the western edge of South America. The intermediate-depth regions of the subducting Nazca plate can be segmented into five sections based on their angle of subduction beneath the South America plate. Three segments are characterized by steeply dipping subduction; the other two by near-horizontal subduction. The Nazca plate beneath northern Ecuador, southern Peru to northern Chile, and southern Chile descend into the mantle at angles of 25° to 30°. In contrast, the slab beneath southern Ecuador to central Peru, and under central Chile, is subducting at a shallow angle of approximately 10° or less. In these regions of “flat-slab” subduction, the Nazca plate moves horizontally for several hundred kilometers before continuing its descent into the mantle, and is shadowed by an extended zone of crustal seismicity in the overlying South America plate. Although the South America plate exhibits a chain of active volcanism resulting from the subduction and partial melting of the Nazca oceanic lithosphere along most of the arc, these regions of inferred shallow subduction correlate with an absence of volcanic activity. - USGS.

GLOBAL ECONOMIC MELTDOWN: Record Deflation In Euro-Zone - Alarm Grows Over Greek Bailout Brinkmanship!

Reuters/Dado Ruvic

February 2, 2015 - EUROPE - Consumer prices in the eurozone fell by 0.6 percent in January due to lower energy prices and global uncertainty. It’s the biggest fall since the currency zone was established.

Last month eurozone deflation was 0.2 percent, which is the first time since the outbreak of the financial crisis of 2009, according to the ‘flash estimate’ by Eurostat.

The current level of deflation in the eurozone is the largest since July 2009, when the prices also fell 0.6 percent which was the biggest fall since the euro was introduced in 1999. Analysts polled by Bloomberg say they expected an average of 0.5 percent in January.

Image from tradingeconomics.com

The biggest drop was in energy costs which fell 8.9 percent as a result of lower oil prices. The cost of food, alcohol and tobacco decreased 0.1 percent. At the same time the cost of various services rose by one percent.

The report comes a day after Germany announced deflation for the first time since 2009. Consumer prices in German declined by 0.3 percent in January year-on-year.

European financial institutions are making every effort to curb the economic downturn in the region and reach an inflation target of 2 percent. The ECB has taken the unprecedented step and started a €1.14 trillion program of ‘quantitative easing’ (QE) designed to bring down deflation and provide the banks with money. The program will run until September 2016 and involve buying bonds from EU member states.

Euro-Zone alarm grows over Greek bailout brinkmanship

Eurozone officials are increasingly worried that Greece’s brinkmanship over its bailout will plunge the country into financial chaos after its finance minister said on Sunday that it would take up to four months to agree a “new contract” with creditors.

Yanis Varoufakis, Greece’s newly appointed finance minister, said Athens would reject any further loans under its international rescue plan, despite Greece’s €172bn bailout expiring at the end of the month. He also said he expected the European Central Bank to prop up the country’s weakened banking system until a longer-term settlement could be reached.

Mr Varoufakis said Greece had been living for the next loan tranche for the past five years. “We have resembled drug addicts craving the next dose. What this government is all about is ending the addiction,” he said, noting it was time to go “cold turkey”.

His comments on Sunday underscored the fears of eurozone officials that the Greek government was unaware of the precariousness of its financial situation.

“Everybody [in the eurozone] wants a deal,” said one senior eurozone official. “But through their actions and their rhetoric, the new government is making a lot of people upset. They are putting themselves in an impossible situation.”

Mr Varoufakis was speaking in Paris on the first leg of a European tour intended to garner support for a renegotiation of its debt burden. Greece’s anti-austerity government roiled markets during a tumultuous first week in power with 40 per cent being wiped off the value of Greek banks following announcements to reverse spending cuts and privatisations.

Despite a more emollient tone from Alexis Tsipras, Greece’s radical leftwing prime minister, over the weekend, EU officials have been dismayed by Athens’ repeated rejection of a bailout extension — and refusal to co-operate with the troika of international creditors. German officials were also irritated at its refusal to engage with Berlin, although Mr Varoufakis said he had now been invited to the German capital.

The finance chief said Athens would make proposals within a month for a “new contract” with the eurozone, which would be in place by the end of May. “We are not going to ask for any loans during this period. It is perfectly possible to establish liquidity provisions with the ECB.”

However, it is unclear whether the ECB will agree to support Greek lenders under such conditions.

Officials familiar with the conversations between eurozone policy makers and Athens said they had little idea of the sort of international financial help Greece was seeking or how it intended to negotiate. Eurozone finance ministers want to discuss Greece’s needs at their next meeting on February 16 — if not sooner, by telephone.

Michel Sapin, French finance minister, urged Athens to come forward with its plans “calmly and quickly”.

The bailout programme is due to expire on February 28. If it is not renewed, Greece will for the first time in five years be left without an EU financial backstop. Because the International Monetary Fund is unlikely to distribute funds without the EU’s participation, Athens could lack access to emergency funding to repay billions of euros in debt due in the coming months.


WATCH: Greece set on action: New govt rejects austerity, cooperation with troika.

EU officials believe the country could eke out €4.3bn in payments owed to the IMF next month, but will run into a wall at the beginning of June when the first of two bonds worth more than €3bn must be paid. Without bailout funding, and an ongoing sell-off in the private bond markets, Athens would be forced to default.

Of more concern to many officials is the Greek banking system, which after massive outflows of deposits is relying on cheap ECB loans to fund day-to-day operations. ECB officials over the weekend made it clear that if the programme expires at the end of February, the central bank would be forced to cut off their liquidity loans.

But they have not clarified whether Greek banks could still access back-up central bank financing, known as emergency liquidity assistance. Although technically loaned by the Greek central bank, it must be approved by the ECB, which has been cagey on whether such lending would be allowed.

Since the outbreak of the eurozone crisis, Greece’s banking system has always been seen as the most likely route to an “accidental” Greek exit from the euro. Without ELA lending, Athens would probably have to print its own currency to keep its banking system running.

ECB president Mario Draghi has told colleagues he is planning to drive a hard bargain on bank liquidity — a similar strategy used with Cyprus in March 2013, which forced Nicosia to accept onerous bailout terms. But Mr Draghi is also wary of unelected central bankers taking a decision that would force Greece from the euro. - FT.

PLAGUES & PESTILENCES: "We Are Very Concerned" - CDC Warns Of "LARGE OUTBREAK" Of Measles In The United States, As Anxiety Spreads!

 Dr. Charles Goodman gave 1-year-old Cameron Fierro the measles-mumps-rubella vaccine at his practice in Northridge, Calif., on Thursday.
Credit Damian Dovarganes/Associated Press

February 2, 2015 - UNITED STATES - Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director Tom Frieden on Sunday warned that the U.S. could see a "large outbreak" of measles. "We are very concerned by the growing number of people who are susceptible to measles, and the possibility that we could have a large outbreak in this country as a result," Frieden said on CBS's "Face the Nation."

There are at least 102 reported cases in 14 states, according to the CDC. Frieden said that the U.S. is "likely to see more cases."

Frieden said there is "aggressive public health action" to identify those with measles, isolate those sick and quarantine those who have been exposed.

But he said the best way to prevent the spread of measles was vaccination.

Frieden said despite the U.S.'s 92 percent vaccination rate, there is growing evidence more parents are not vaccinating their children.


WATCH: CDC warns of 'large outbreak' of measles.

"What we’ve seen is, as over the last few years, a small but growing number of people, have not been vaccinated. That number is building up among young adults in society, and that makes us vulnerable," he said.

Frieden acknowledged that some parents are concerned about the safety of vaccines, or think measles no longer exists.

"One in six kids could have a fever ten days after, but the vaccine is safe and effective. And for those parents that may think that measles is gone, it’s still here, and it can be quite serious," he said.

Frieden also appeared on ABC's "This Week," urging parents to vaccinate their children.

"What you do for your own kids doesn't just affect your family. It affects other families as well," he said. "The more kids who are not vaccinated, the more they're at risk and the more they put their neighbors' kids at risk as well.” - The Hill.

As Measles Cases Spread in U.S., So Does Anxiety

The measles outbreak tied to Disneyland continued to spread anxiety Friday as two new cases emerged overnight in Marin County in California — along with at least one in Nebraska — while Arizona officials warned that at least 1,000 people may have been exposed to the virus through seven others in that state.

Since Jan. 1, the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have confirmed 84 measles cases in 14 states. California’s health department, which is updating a measles count more frequently, has found more than 90 cases in the United States and Mexico so far, with 52 linked to the Disneyland outbreak.

Concern about the highly contagious disease intensified Friday in several states, including Minnesota, where health officials are notifying hundreds of people who may have come into contact with a University of Minnesota student with measles.

There was also anxiety in Arizona, where thousands of people are arriving in Phoenix for the Super Bowl on Sunday. The disease centers are now advising anyone with symptoms not to attend the game.

“The very large outbreaks we’ve seen around the world often started with a small number of cases,” said Dr. Anne Schuchat, director of the agency’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases.

Officials in three counties in the Phoenix area — Maricopa, Gila and Pinal — have already asked residents who have not been vaccinated and who might have been exposed to stay home from school, work or day care for 21 days. Schools in some other states are considering more formal bans on unvaccinated children.

“This is a critical point in this outbreak,” the Arizona state health director, Will Humble, wrote on his blog. Any missed cases, he wrote, could cause “a long and protracted outbreak.”

Each case so far has spawned an exhaustive public health response.

News sites in Pennsylvania and other states are alerting readers when measles-infected individuals have visited local establishments, an effort to warn residents of exposure. And in places like New Mexico, where the number of unvaccinated children increased 17 percent from 2012 to 2014, health officials are warning that the disease could soon hit.

In Minneapolis, the Minnesota Department of Health said Friday that it is working with the University of Minnesota to manage the case of measles diagnosed in a 20-year-old male university student. It has notified other students who may have been exposed, along with health officials at the hospital where he sought treatment.

“We are going to be watching this situation very closely,” the Minnesota commissioner of health, Dr. Edward Ehlinger, said.

Dr. Ehlinger emphasized that the potential risk to the general public is very low, but said people should take precautions to protect themselves and their children. In particular, he called on parents to make sure their children have been properly immunized.

A spokesman for the state health department, Doug Schultz, said the student had probably contracted the measles on a trip to Indonesia. The student told health authorities that he had received two doses of the measles, mumps and rubella vaccine, Mr. Schultz said, but that it was unclear when he had received his last shot.

The vaccine, Mr. Schultz said, is about 95 percent effective, so it is possible for people who are current with their vaccinations to contract the virus. In Minnesota, about 1.6 percent of people decline to be vaccinated, Mr. Schultz said.

In Nebraska, Leah Bucco-White, a spokeswoman for the Department of Health and Human Services, said Friday that officials had confirmed two cases of measles in children in the eastern part of the state.

The first case is related to the Disneyland outbreak, Ms. Bucco-White said, but the origin of the second case remained unclear. “We’re still investigating the source of exposure.”

Health officials in Nebraska are recommending a quarantine for individuals who may have been exposed, and are sending out information to health care providers on what kind of symptoms to watch for.

Public health officials from across the nation have made appeals in recent days to have their children immunized, and there are signs that the trend away from vaccination may be reversing in at least some locations.

In Maricopa County, Arizona, three clinics have experienced a surge in visitors requesting measles vaccinations for their children, according to health officials, who reported a 50 percent rise in vaccination requests over last year.

The clinics have added nurses, and lines have begun to form. One visitor was a parent from Mesa who had two children, ages 12 and 14, who had not received measles vaccinations.

“If you’re trying to make lemonade out of the situation,” said Jeanene Fowler, a spokeswoman for the county health department, “that’s the best we can ask for.” - NY Times.